Risk Modeling Framework for Strategic and Operational Intervention to Enhance the Effectiveness of a Closed-Loop Supply Chain

In a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC), acquiring end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) and their components from both primary and secondary markets has posed a huge uncertainty and risk. Moreover, the constant supply of ELV components with minimization of cost and exploitation of natural resources is another pressing challenge. To address the issues, the present study has developed a risk simulation framework to study market uncertainty/risk in a CLSC. In the first phase of the framework, a total of 12 important variables are identified from the existing studies. The total interpretive structural model (TISM) is used to develop a causal relationship network among the variables. Then, Matriced Impacts Cruoses Multiplication Applique a un Classement is used for determining the nature of relationships (i.e., driving or dependence power). In the second phase, the relationship of TISM is used to derive a Bayesian belief network model for determining the level of risks (i.e., high, medium, and low) associated with the CLSC through the generation of conditional probabilities across 1) multi-, 2) single-, and 3) without-parent nodes. The study findings will help decision-makers in adopting strategic and operational interventions to increase the effectiveness and resiliency of the network. Furthermore, it will help practitioners to make decisions on change management implementation for stakeholders'performance audits on the attributes of the ELV recovery program and developing resilience in the CLSC network. Overall, the present study holistically contributes to a broader investigation of the implications of strategic decisions in automobile manufacturers and resellers. IEEE

Downside risk-return volatilities during Covid 19 outbreak: a comparison across developed and emerging markets.

This research study evaluates the impact of the Covid 19 pandemics on the downside risk-return volatilities across the four stock markets of the USA, UK, China, and Pakistan. The pandemic results in severe economic and financial consequences both at micro and macro levels as well as across the stock markets of various countries. The selected stock markets of the USA, UK, Pakistan, and China are significantly affected in terms of both investor risk and return during the pandemic time. The entire period distribution of the risk exhibited the downside risk behavior of both markets and investors' serious concern regarding their investment strategies. Using high-frequency data from January 2020 to April 2021, the findings of the study reveal more of the downside abnormal returns across both markets. The impact is larger and high in developed markets of USA and UK compared to the emerging markets of China and Pakistan. The outcomes of the various value-at-risk models disclose the higher downside risk implications for all markets, larger for developed countries. Similarly, the three stock markets of the USA, UK, and China were found to be significantly connected during a pandemic. Investors' reactions were positive and high in case of positive news outbreaks and dwindling in case of negative news and downside impact. The outcomes of the study are useful for investors, portfolio managers, investment advisors, and others to understand the dynamics of the pandemic situation and devise effective strategies to overcome the severities of downside risk.

Chronic Inflammation in the Context of Everyday Life: Dietary Changes as Mitigating Factors.

The lifestyle adopted by most people in Western societies has an important impact on the propensity to metabolic disorders (e.g., diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative diseases). This is often accompanied by chronic low-grade inflammation, driven by the activation of various molecular pathways such as STAT3 (signal transducer and activator of transcription 3), IKK (IκB kinase), MMP9 (matrix metallopeptidase 9), MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinases), COX2 (cyclooxigenase 2), and NF-Kß (nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells). Multiple intervention studies have demonstrated that lifestyle changes can lead to reduced inflammation and improved health. This can be linked to the concept of real-life risk simulation, since humans are continuously exposed to dietary factors in small doses and complex combinations (e.g., polyphenols, fibers, polyunsaturated fatty acids, etc.). Inflammation biomarkers improve in patients who consume a certain amount of fiber per day; some even losing weight. Fasting in combination with calorie restriction modulates molecular mechanisms such as m-TOR, FOXO, NRF2, AMPK, and sirtuins, ultimately leads to significantly reduced inflammatory marker levels, as well as improved metabolic markers. Moving toward healthier dietary habits at the individual level and in publicly-funded institutions, such as schools or hospitals, could help improving public health, reducing healthcare costs and improving community resilience to epidemics (such as COVID-19), which predominantly affects individuals with metabolic diseases.